I hadn't known about Wretchard's three conjectures, published in 2003; I started reading his blog only a few years ago (thanks to Shrinkwrapped for the reference). In view of the precarious situation in Pakistan, with the Taliban and Al Qaeda entrenched in the frontier tribal areas, radical Islam adherents in the military and government, and Musharraf's tenuous position, Wretchard's conjectures take on a pertinent urgency that was only prophesy immediately after 9/11.
Update. February 1, 2008. Donald Sensing lays out the same idea, with fresh alarm from the recent atrocity in Baghdad in which Al Qaeda sent mentally disabled women loaded with explosives into a crowded market.