Since the end of the Cold War in the mid-1990s, the US has systematically reduced its military capabilities. The reduction has been based on the assumption that we will not again face a major power showdown as we did in the twentieth century -- US v Japan, US v Germany, US v Soviet Union. In addition, with the US as the only great military power left, even the requirements of being the world's policeman are diminished. The billy club we swing needn't be huge to mash flies, and, gosh and by golly (per Obama) the UN should take over the role of international policeman anyway. The new power assessment is 9/11: new conflicts are likely to be asymmetrical, as in the US v non-state terrorists.
But hidden inside this assessment is a fatal intellectual flaw. The policy will be self-fulfilling. It sets up the conditions so that it cannot be disproved. That is, there won't be a big power showdown, because we reduce our military capability so that we couldn't win a big power showdown, so we will avoid big power showdowns, and big power showdowns won't happen. And this flaw will be proved shortly, within a decade. China will assert its military control of the South China sea. It will provoke a crisis, daring the US to intervene. The US, with a diminished Navy and Air Force, will not take the bait. Whatever President is around will have to sue for peace. There will be a big international conference. The President will emerge waving a signed agreement and talk about peace in our time.Taiwan will fall. Or South Korea will fall. Or China will impose trade control over countries to its south.
The South China Sea is not the only flash point. The Middle East is obviously a candidate for a dramatic showdown. It should be clear now, as it has been to some of us all along, that the "Arab Spring" will bring a hard winter of Islamist totalitarian regimes, imposing anti-semitic and anti-Christian policies domestically and aggressively advancing such anti-semitic and anti-Christian foreign policies. Israel will be isolated and attacked. With the effective mobile force of the US Marines reduced, the US will not have the tactical ability to enter the conflict in time to save Israel. The US will sue for peace, against the pleas of remnant Israeli forces, to end fighting begging that the remaining Jews are not killed. The victorious Muslims will agree to allow a few Jews to live submissively in a Muslim Palestine. Most surviving Israeli Jews will be evacuated to the US. Peace will come to the Middle East, as to South Asia, at the cost of millions of lives and of freedom.
The fallacy of our current military policies is that it makes our Munich moment inevitable.
Recent Comments