President Obama's decision to send additional brigades to Afghanistan while neighboring Pakistan disintegrates prompts the following morose thoughts.
Pakistan is the "sick man" of Asia. As with the Turkey before World War I, the "sick man" of its era, whose weakness was a precipitating factor in the War,the slow collapse of Pakistan would probably precipitate a general war in Asia.
The current civilian government of Pakistan is unable to control some of its own services (such as the intelligence service) and unable to govern many areas. If the secular government falls, Pakistan would undoubtedly be ruled by fundamentalist Islamists. The Pakistani military is already heavily infiltrated by Islamists. Upon obtaining control of the state, the Islamists have several immediate objectives--assisting the Taliban's reconquest of Afghanistan (Pakistan under the Bhutto government in the 1990s had assisted the Taliban in that decade), taking control of the disputed lands between Pakistan and India and the Muslim-dominated regions of India, and assisting Jihadists in their war against us, the United States. A Taliban controlled Afghanistan would again provide a safe-haven for al-Qaeda and other Jihadist terrorist militias. Islamist rulers of Pakistan would have control of Pakistan's nuclear bombs; this control would immediately imperil the US and could not be permitted. It would require immediate US military intervention. Pakistan would foment unrest among India's Muslims (the Mumbai massacres were a small preview of what could come). India would be compelled to use force to quell the unrest in its large Muslim minority, which would precipitate civil war, or something approaching civil war. Civil war in India would offer a justification for overt Islamist-state Pakistan intervention.
A general war in Central Asia would almost certainly involve Iran. We must envision ourselves and India fighting against a linked Islamist axis running from East to West, consisting of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. For the US, this is terrible geography in which to fight a war. It is possible that such a war would agitate the Muslim population of Western China, leading China into military action in its Western regions. Such a war would also agitate the Muslim populations of Central Asia on Russia's border. Russia could become defensively involved. Iraq would be caught on the margins of this conflict (between Iran and Syria) and our democratic experiment on the Tigris-Euphrates would be imperiled.
The possibility of a general conflagration in Central Asia is the future ground of President Obama's decision to augment US military forces in Afghanistan. But adding a few brigades will not do the job. He and his advisors need a much bigger vision of the region, of our stake in its stability and keeping it out of Islamist control, and of the horrendous difficulty of a larger war--a war we could not choose not to fight.
Obama needs to begin to rebuild, expand, and upgrade up the US military for a generation of asymmetrical conflict that is always on the edge of bursting into a general conflict. Clearly, doubling the number of combat forces is required, along with enlarging our air and naval forces. A couple of brigades, accompanied by big rhetoric, is inadequate. He needs to establish a series of secure, long-term, military bases in the region to support a much larger conflict than the one we now face in Afghanistan. He needs to establish general policy understanding with India, China, and Russia regarding the conduct of a war against an Islamist axis.
All these premonitions seem alarmist; but the prognosis for Pakistan is not good. The more the US does now to prepare for and to be prepared to wage and win a large war in Central Asia, the greater the likelihood that such a war will not occur.
Revised. February 19, 2009.
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