Not simply Iran's successful prosecution of its nuclear bomb program, not simply Russia's successful invasion of Georgia, but the entire web of energy resources spreading out from Iran and Russia are emboldening those two countries to draw the West into a confrontation with them. They are convinced they can face the US down and win. Russia has picked up the Iranian foreign relations trumpet, playing brassy notes that it won't back down, can destroy US and NATO naval forces, can destroy its neighbors who cooperate with the US. Russia expects no one will stop it. Iran expects no one will stop it.
Right on cue, Russia has, seeing US weakness in refusing to help Georgia repell Russian invasion, withdrawn from diplomatic efforts to halt Iranian enrichment and told Iran it will complete building the Iranian reactor at Bushehr that it halted five years ago under pressure from the US. (Update, August 30, 2008).
Iran believes that it has forced Israel into appeasement. They are convinced that President Bush and Secretary of State Rush are politically boxed into diplomatic appeasement by the pacifists in the Democratic Party and the State Department. They will not back down. All of Iran and Russia's posturing is bluff; in reality, the US is vastly the greater military power and completely capable of incapacitating both of them, should we have the will. Bluff always leads to war when the bluff is not called. And war is close, perhaps within a few months, surely by the end of 2009. Why? Israel is being forced, by Iran's intransigent refusal to cooperate with the US and UN, to defend its national existence by attacking Iran.
The result of Israel's pre-emptive attack on Iran will be Iran's unleashing of Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel and Hamas's and the PA attacking Israel from the South. Hezbollah will rocket attack Tel Aviv, inflicting thousands of civilian casualties, thereby compelling the IDF to invade and occupy southern Lebanon. At the same time, the IDF will have to re-occupy Gaza and much of the West Bank to protect its southern flank. Within a few days of this bloody mess, Syria will attempt to seize the Golan. We will have general Middle East war.
In the mayhem, it is likely that Islamists in Central Asia will make strenuous efforts to obtain their long-sought goals, bringing conflict with Russia and nominal US allies, such as Pakistan and Turkey.
The world is walking toward a terrible mess, because the US has removed the option of using force to destroy Iran's nuclear bomb program.
Update. August 30, 2008. For persons who still don't get it, that international relations is ultimately about military power, Robert Kagan explains. That economic power takes second place to military power is in the nature of nations. Russia's power play in Georgia should not have been unexpected; nor should its future power plays! ("Power Play", The Wall Street Journal Saturday/Sunday August 30-31, 2008, W1.)
Update. August 31, 2008. In "The Tanks of August" (The American Thinker), Joel Sprayregen makes the case that Russia's invasion of Georgia was our 1938; it was the beginning of the march to the next major war.
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