Robert J. Barro analyzed the relationship between stock market crashes and national economic contractions in the US and 33 other countries with data going back to 1870. He defines a depression as a 10% decline in gross domestic product (averaged per person) or a 10% decline in consumption. If there is a stock market crash with ca. 50% decline in value (US stock market lost 55% of its value in years 1929-1931), there is a 28% chance of a depression-sized contraction. Absent severe war, which accompanies many contractions in (civilian) consumption, Barro puts the odds of the US having a depression at 20%. (Robert J. Barro, "What Are the Odds of a Depression", The Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, March 4, 2009, A15.)
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- Twitter Shroudedindoubt
Reaction on the fly and announcements of blog articles
My Blogs
- Bag of Worms Yet Words
Philosophical discussion about values - Skin and Bones
My creative interests - Body Parts
Ruminations and rants about my life and times
Start Parts
- Preface to a Personal 1960s Journal
The making of a radical mind - Introduction to My 1980s Journal
Reflections on my life as I enter middle age - What My Body Parts Blog Is About
Returning through doubt to the faith of my forefathers
Parts of Interest
- Top 5 Best List
What landscapes, buildings, movies, etc., impressed me in my youth. - Arrogance (8 articles)
What is arrogance? Am I arrogant? Yes. - Obama, Marxist (17 articles)
Obama's ideological commitment. - Most Influential Books (2 articles)
One list from 1980, one from 2009. - A Primer on America's Economic Crisis (5 articles)
It's not just housing and the banking system. - Life's Illusions (5 articles)
Sex, movies, politics, family life, and cancer - Can There Be A False Religion? (4 articles)
A framework for evaluating Islam's claim to be a religion - The Causes of Obesity (4 articles)
What is obesity, what causes it, is it lack of exercise, whose fault? - Issues of Medicine and Insurance (5 articles)
How to solve California's and America's medical care and cost crisis - President Bush, an Evening at the Coffee Depot, the Homeless Drunk Man
Forgiveness - 9-11 Christmas Letter
To friends and family in December 2001 - Why Have Children?
Some people need convincing - Preparing to Die (3 articles)
How can we prepare? - This Objectionable Man
I am an objectionable person - When Is Death Not Pointless?
Death in combat is not pointless - Military Service
What being classified 4F did to my views of war - Friendship (2 articles)
Friendship is not what most people think it is--or want it to be. - My First Time
Yes, my first time for that - Burdens of Women (3 articles)
Caretaking, pregnancy, men - Thinking About Abortion (7 articles)
Why women get abortions; devaluing women; influence of men; family formation, my girl friend's abortion
From My 1980s Journal
- Oh California! (9 articles)
How God Answered My Prayer - Politics Is A Window (7 articles)
Politics by an observer - Failing at Faith (3 articles)
Faith cannot be forced into the child - Making My Mind (17 articles)
Path of Discovey of Intellectual Life - Lessons in Love Before the Pill (7 articles)
Love and sex when growing up in the 1950s and '60s
Recent Posts
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- From: Iam Doubt
- From: Iam Doubt
- As North Korea's bellicose posturing
- Questions I Ask and Have Not Answered
- Stealth Totalitarianism of the New Left In Action: Obama Approves Domestic Surveillance Drones
- America's Murder Rate Indicates America Has A Gang Problem, Not a Gun Control Problem
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2.3 Miles Walk Route
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4.2 Miles Running Route
- Panoramas and details
Battle of Lewisburg
- Reenactment of Battle of May 23, 1862, in Lewisburg, (West) Virginia
Bear
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Brooklyn
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Brooklyn Botanical Garden
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Brooklyn Grand Army Plaza
- Inspiring civic monument at Prospect Park.
Brooklyn Midwood
- Avenue M, Midwood, Brooklyn, on the Sabbath.
Crown Jewels
- Wonderful young people from our neighborhood.
Domestic Flowers
- Flowers in our neighborhood's street-side gardens cultivated by women.
Manhattan
- The personal and human-scale settings of the city.
Murrah Memorial
- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Now Villages
- Village neighborhoods in Sprawling Suburb.
Pepper Tree
- An old pepper tree, with character in its detail and complexity.
Reliquary
- The author's baby and childhood photos in Faraway Village.
Re-Piping
- Re-piping our 1928 house.
Seattle
- Sunlight and Sight Lines
Shrouded
- Shrouds may cover, yet reveal and set forth.
World Trade Center Site
- Engaging Ground Zero, confronting painful memories.
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