McCain has been unable to re-frame the debate between the political parties over the Iraq War. It remains a debate over the issue of timing of withdrawal of US armed forces. All that the surge and the political recognition of the surge's success have done is focus the discussion narrowly on the timing of withdrawal. The issue of withdrawal is a terrible disservice to American interests in the Middle East, which are many and valid. I have discussed the larger, regional issues several times (here, and here).
Here I would like to argue for the importance of (1) making Iraq an American ally and (2) permanent US bases in Iraq.
1. Iraq is our only opportunity to break the chain of radical Muslim terrorism in the northern Middle East. If we do not protect Iraq's freedom and alliance to the US, Iraq will almost certainly fall under the influence of its neighbors, Iran to the East and Syria to the West. We have already, in effect, abandoned Lebanon. Afghanistan would become difficult to keep in the orbit of Western freedom. The result would be an axis of radical, Muslim, terrorist authoritarian regimes, probably possessing the atomic bomb, spreading across the northern Middle East, eager to make trouble.
Such an axis would also further isolate Israel. Caroline Glick recently made the insightful and sensible suggestion that Israel cultivate relations with Iraq. Iraq has not yet descended into the pathology anti-semitism and anti-Israel hatred of the rest of the Middle East. Israel has enormous stores of expertise to assist Iraq. A mutual alliance between the two would only be, however, possible if the US maintains a presence in Iraq.
2. It is all well and good to have several US carrier groups and several Marine divisions in the neighborhood, the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean. But those forces are only useful for temporary intervention. To use US armed forces to protect US and Western interests and to stabilize the region, we need permanent military bases with a significant force of Army troops, able to move east or west to deal with trouble. A significant, long-term, military presence in Iraq, as in Japan and Germany, is required.
McCain must lay out the larger strategic importance of a permanent US military presence in Iraq and the Middle East. The great problems of our era started because the US withdrew its influence in the Carter and Reagan administrations. Carter wilted before the Iranian revolution and Reagan withdrew the US from Lebanon after the bombing of the Marine barracks. Our lack of fortitude and vision signaled to the Syrians, Iranians, and Palestinians that we would not stand up for freedom and stability against their attacks. They were right. We have an opportunity to correct that mistake now in Iraq. We should not lose it.
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